Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 0.000295 0.000331 0.000369 0.000414 0.000464 0.000520 0.000586
2024-12-29 0.000228 0.000278 0.000337 0.000413 0.000507 0.000622 0.000772
2025-01-05 0.000196 0.000254 0.000328 0.000430 0.000566 0.000745 0.001000
2025-01-12 0.000165 0.000225 0.000305 0.000420 0.000586 0.000816 0.001167
2025-01-19 0.000139 0.000196 0.000277 0.000400 0.000584 0.000854 0.001289
2025-01-26 0.000125 0.000184 0.000269 0.000404 0.000616 0.000944 0.001500
2025-02-02 0.000118 0.000179 0.000271 0.000423 0.000673 0.001076 0.001797
2025-02-09 0.000106 0.000166 0.000259 0.000419 0.000690 0.001147 0.002002
2025-02-16 0.000098 0.000158 0.000254 0.000423 0.000721 0.001244 0.002266
2025-02-23 0.000090 0.000148 0.000244 0.000418 0.000737 0.001316 0.002494
2025-03-02 0.000084 0.000141 0.000239 0.000421 0.000765 0.001412 0.002782
2025-03-09 0.000078 0.000135 0.000233 0.000421 0.000788 0.001501 0.003071
2025-03-16 0.000070 0.000123 0.000216 0.000401 0.000772 0.001517 0.003218
2025-03-23 0.000065 0.000117 0.000212 0.000403 0.000800 0.001626 0.003590
2025-03-30 0.000063 0.000116 0.000214 0.000420 0.000861 0.001814 0.004180
2025-04-06 0.000058 0.000108 0.000205 0.000411 0.000866 0.001879 0.004491
2025-04-13 0.000052 0.000099 0.000191 0.000391 0.000843 0.001879 0.004640
2025-04-20 0.000049 0.000096 0.000188 0.000395 0.000876 0.002014 0.005163
2025-04-27 0.000048 0.000096 0.000192 0.000414 0.000945 0.002246 0.005998
2025-05-04 0.000045 0.000091 0.000186 0.000410 0.000958 0.002340 0.006468
2025-05-11 0.000043 0.000088 0.000184 0.000413 0.000992 0.002494 0.007145
2025-05-18 0.000040 0.000084 0.000178 0.000409 0.001005 0.002595 0.007686
2025-05-25 0.000039 0.000082 0.000176 0.000412 0.001035 0.002747 0.008423